Field Poll: Californians want to change state Constitution

SAN FRANCISCO
October 14, 2009 12:14pm

A majority of Californians sees the need for making fundamental changes to the state Constitution and would support calling a constitutional convention to develop the reform proposals, according to a new Field Poll.

But many of the reform proposals that have been proffered by reform advocates are not widely supported by the voting public, says the survey.

• By a 52 percent to 43 percent margin Californians disapprove of the idea of changing the current two-thirds vote requirement of the legislature to pass a state budget to a simple majority.

• Majorities also reject amending Proposition 13 to allow the state legislature to increase taxes by a simple majority vote (69 percent) or to create a split roll property tax system that would tax commercial property at a higher rate than residential property (52 percent).

• In addition, there is relatively little voter support for two recommendations recently put forward by the state-appointed Commission on the 21st Century Economy that call for flattening state personal income tax rates and changing the way California businesses are taxed.

More results from the Field Poll:

“Voters are supportive of two proposed changes to the state’s initiative process, according to the poll: increasing the vote requirement needed to approve amendments to the state constitution from a simple majority vote to a two-thirds vote (56 percent) and requiring initiative sponsors to identify funding sources or areas of the budget to be cut when submitting initiatives that call for additional spending (75 percent).

“A 51 percent to 39 percent majority prefers a constitutional convention over a revision commission to develop the reform proposals, says the survey. Although pluralities of voters across all parties prefer a constitutional convention, Republicans are more likely to say this and favor it over a revision commission more than two to one.

“When asked who should serve as delegates to a constitutional convention, 63 percent favor including a wide range of individuals – appointed experts, elected delegates and everyday citizens – rather than only one or the other of these groups.

“Most voters say they would either be very likely (32 percent) or somewhat likely (30 percent) to serve as a convention delegate if selected and paid under the terms now being considered by convention organizers. This includes paying delegates $50,000 for up to six months of full-time work away from home. Stated interest in serving as a delegate spans all demographic subgroups of the voting population.

“By a 59 percent to 33 percent margin voters think that constitutional reform deliberations should be limited to matters relating to the way government operates rather than including social issues like same-sex marriage.

“However, voters take a different view when asked whether illegal immigration should be included in constitutional reform deliberations. By a 48 percent to 42 percent margin, more voters support addressing illegal immigration in these discussions than favor limiting them only to matters relating to government operations.”

Methodology

The findings in the report are based on a random sample survey of 1,005 registered voters in California. Interviewing was conducted by telephone in English and Spanish between Sept. 18 and Oct. 5. In order to test what effect alternative wordings of the questions might have on survey results, some of the questions in the report were asked of random subsamples of about 500 voters each.

The sample was developed from telephone listings of individual voters selected randomly from a statewide list of registered voters in California. Once a voter’s name and telephone number had been selected, interviews were attempted only with the specified voter. Interviews were conducted on either the voter’s landline or cell phone, depending on the source of the telephone listing from the voter file and the preference of the voter. Up to six attempts were made to reach and interview each randomly selected voter on different days and times of day during the interviewing period. After the completion of interviewing, the results were weighted to known distributions of registered voters by party and by other demographic and regional characteristics of the state’s registered voter population.

Sampling error estimates applicable to any probability-based survey depend on sample size. The maximum sampling error for results based on the overall registered voters sample is +/- 3.2 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level, while findings from each random subsample have a sampling error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. The maximum sampling error is based on percentages in the middle of the sampling distribution (percentages around 50 percent). Percentages at either end of the distribution (percentages around 10 percent or around 90 percent) have a smaller margin of error. While there are other potential sources of error in surveys besides sampling error, the overall design and execution of the survey minimized the potential for these other sources of error. The maximum sampling error will be larger for analyses based on subgroups of the overall sample.

Major funding for the survey was provided by Next 10, which describes itself as “an independent, nonpartisan organization that educates, engages and empowers Californians to improve the state’s future. Next 10 was founded and is funded by venture capitalist and philanthropist F. Noel Perry.”