Found! Economists who are optimistic about the economy

SAN DIEGO
September 20, 2011 10:00am

The economy – be it the nation’s or California’s -- is not on the verge of falling into another recession any time soon, says a new report Tuesday from Beacon Economics of Los Angeles and San Francisco.

While acknowledging substantial problems and an overall slow recovery, the new forecast is optimistic in the short-run, expecting growth to pick up in the second half of 2011 and into 2012.

“The U.S. economy is still far behind where it should be at this stage in the business cycle,” says Christopher Thornberg, founding partner of Beacon Economics. “But the chance of it shrinking or contracting back into another recession in 2011 is pretty close to zero percent.“

The Beacon forecast says that there is no condition today – not oil prices, stock market turbulence, weak labor markets, or Europe’s public debt crisis – that currently has the capacity to “shock” the economy back into a recession.

But the Beacon economists say that California's labor market recovery is being slowed by a serious “skills mismatch.” The sectors leading the recovery generally require higher levels of educational attainment, but residents without a college degree made up more than 75 percent of the state's unemployed in 2010.

The new forecast is being released in connection with the 2011 San Diego Economic Forecast Conference.