November home prices still in free fall

SANTA ANA
January 9, 2012 6:51am
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•  Fourth consecutive monthly decline

•  ‘The healthy, non-distressed market will be very modestly down in 2011’


Home prices in the Central Valley as well as the rest of the country continued in free fall in November compared to a year earlier, with the U.S. average price decreasing for the fourth consecutive month, according to a new report Monday from financial information company CoreLogic Inc. (NYSE: CLGX) of Santa Ana.

The price decline compared to October was 1.4 percent, but even steeper when comparing November 2011 to the same month in 2010.

Including distressed sales, home prices declined by 4.3 percent on a year-over-year basis. This follows a decline of 3.7 percent in October 2011 compared to October 2010.

But take out the foreclosure auctions and other distress sales, and year-over-year prices only declined by 0.6 percent in November 2011 compared to November 2010 and by 1.6 percent in October 2011 compared to October 2010. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

"With one month of data left to report, it appears that the healthy, non-distressed market will be very modestly down in 2011. Distressed sales continue to put downward pressure on prices and is a factor that must be addressed in 2012 for a housing recovery to become a reality," says Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.

Following are market summaries for Central Valley metropolitan areas from CoreLogic:

• Home Prices in Stockton Decrease

In Stockton, home prices, including distressed sales, declined by 7.1 percent in November 2011 compared to November 2010 and declined by 6.8 percent in October 2011 compared to October 2010.

Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 4.6 percent in November 2011 compared to November 2010 and declined by 5.1 percent in October 2011 compared to October 2010.

• Home Prices in Visalia-Porterville Decrease

In Visalia-Porterville, home prices, including distressed sales, declined by 5.3 percent in November 2011 compared to November 2010 and declined by 7.3 percent in October 2011 compared to October 2010.

Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 2.9 percent in November 2011 compared to November 2010 and declined by 4.3 percent in October 2011 compared to October 2010.

• Home Prices in Hanford-Corcoran Decrease

In Hanford-Corcoran, home prices, including distressed sales, declined by 0.4 percent in November 2011 compared to November 2010 and declined by 1.8 percent in October 2011 compared to October 2010.

Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 2.5 percent in November 2011 compared to November 2010 and declined by 3.6 percent in October 2011 compared to October 2010.

• Home Prices in Bakersfield-Delano Decrease

In Bakersfield-Delano, home prices, including distressed sales, declined by 5.1 percent in November 2011 compared to November 2010 and declined by 7.1 percent in October 2011 compared to October 2010.

Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 0.4 percent in November 2011 compared to November 2010 and declined by 3.1 percent in October 2011 compared to October 2010.

• Home Prices in Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville Decrease

In metropolitan Sacramento, including the Arden-Arcade neighborhood plus the city of Roseville, home prices, including distressed sales, declined by 10.0 percent in November 2011 compared to November 2010 and declined by 10.3 percent in October 2011 compared to October 2010.

Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 5.8 percent in November 2011 compared to November 2010 and declined by 7.8 percent in October 2011 compared to October 2010.

• Home Prices in Modesto Decrease

In Modesto, home prices, including distressed sales, declined by 6.3 percent in November 2011 compared to November 2010 and declined by 7.4 percent in October 2011 compared to October 2010.

Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 8.0 percent in November 2011 compared to November 2010 and declined by 9.3 percent in October 2011 compared to October 2010.

• Home Prices in Merced Decrease

In Merced, home prices, including distressed sales, declined by 1.4 percent in November 2011 compared to November 2010 and declined by 3.9 percent in October 2011 compared to October 2010.

Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices increased by 0.4 percent in November 2011 compared to November 2010 and increased by 0.5 percent in October 2011 compared to October 2010.

• Home Prices in Madera-Chowchilla Decrease

In Madera-Chowchilla, home prices, including distressed sales, declined by 7.5 percent in November 2011 compared to November 2010 and declined by 9.7 percent in October 2011 compared to October 2010.

Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices increased by 1.6 percent in November 2011 compared to November 2010 and declined by 0.3 percent in October 2011 compared to October 2010.

• Home Prices in Chico Decrease

In Chico, home prices, including distressed sales, declined by 8.4 percent in November 2011 compared to November 2010 and declined by 9.2 percent in October 2011 compared to October 2010.

Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 7.5 percent in November 2011 compared to November 2010 and declined by 9.0 percent in October 2011 compared to October 2010.

• Home Prices in Fresno Decrease

In Fresno, home prices, including distressed sales, declined by 9.5 percent in November 2011 compared to November 2010 and declined by 10.5 percent in October 2011 compared to October 2010.

Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 8.5 percent in November 2011 compared to November 2010 and declined by 9.6 percent in October 2011 compared to October 2010.

National Highlights from CoreLogic’s report on November 2011 include:

• Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest appreciation were: Vermont (+4.3 percent), South Carolina (+2.8 percent), District of Columbia (+2.1 percent), Nebraska (+1.9 percent) and New York (+1.7 percent).

• Including distressed sales, the five states with the greatest depreciation were: Nevada (-11.2 percent), Illinois (-9.7 percent), Minnesota (-7.8 percent), Georgia (-7.7 percent) and Ohio (-7.2 percent).

• Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest appreciation were: Maine (+4.9 percent), South Carolina (+4.9 percent), Montana (+3.8 percent), Indiana (+3.3 percent) and Louisiana (+2.4 percent).

• Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the greatest depreciation were: Nevada (-8.8 percent), Arizona (-4.9 percent), Minnesota (-4.7 percent), Idaho (-4.1 percent) and Georgia (-3.6 percent).

• Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to November 2011) was -32.8 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -23.1 percent.

• Of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population, 77 are showing year-over-year declines in November, three fewer than in October.


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