La Nina weather expected by autumn
COLLEGE PARK, MD.
March 10, 2016
• But El Nino weather expected to continue into Spring
• “Considerable uncertainty remains”
All computer models indicate that that the El Niño weather phenomenon that is credited with California’s wet weather this winter will weaken by the late spring or early summer, says a report Thursday from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society.
Thereafter, the chance of La Niña conditions increases into the fall, the report says. La Nina often means drier than usual conditions in Southern California and, occasionally, more rain for the northern-most parts of the state.
“While there is both model and physical support for La Niña following a strong El Niño, considerable uncertainty remains,” the report cautions, concluding that there is a 50-50 chance of La Nina developing by Fall.
El Niño has already produced significant global impacts and is expected to affect temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States during the upcoming months, the report says. The seasonal outlooks for March-May indicate an increased likelihood of above-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States and below-median precipitation over the Midwest and part of Pacific Northwest. Above-average temperatures are favored across the North and West, with below-average temperatures favored in the south-central region.