Avocado demand continues to expand

SACRAMENTO
December 3, 2007 12:01am

Avocado demand in the United States has risen rapidly the past decade with Americans consuming an average of 3.3 pounds of avocados per person.

That's almost double the consumption levels seen 10 years ago.

At the same time, domestic avocado production, most of which comes from California, increased about 18 percent a year.

But the wildfires that swept through Southern California this past October have raised concerns about the fires’ impact on the state’s avocado crop, which was in the midst of transitioning to the new crop season, says a report from the National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Of the seven counties that were declared emergency disaster areas due to the wildfires, five have the largest acreage in avocado production — San Diego, Ventura, Santa Barbara, Riverside, and Orange.

“The California Avocado Commission initially indicated that around 4,000 acres of avocado production, mostly in San Diego County, were affected by the wildfires in varying degrees of damage,” the NASS report says.

That’s about 6 percent of California’s total bearing acreage for avocados. San Diego County had over 26,000 bearing acres in 2006-2007.

Damage assessments are still ongoing and could take several weeks to determine the full scope of the damage to avocado orchards and its impact on the state’s avocado industry, the report says.

The fires burned down avocado trees and production infrastructure such as irrigation lines.

But another problem came from the strong Santa Ana winds. The winds that drove the fires also knocked fruit off the trees, affecting remaining fruit from the 2006-2007 crop as well as new fruit for the 2007-2008 season, says the report.

The severity of the wildfire damage varied across the affected orchards with some orchards completely devastated, others partially burned, and some reported only superficial scorching of foliage.

Prior to the wildfires, the industry expected 2007-2008 production to improve from last season’s below-average crop.

“Based on NASS estimates, the 2006-2007 California avocado crop was only 135,000 tons, the smallest since 1989-1990, when only 105,000 tons were produced. Production declined in 2006-2007, partly due to the record-large crop harvested in 2005-2006 that left avocado trees less productive last season and because of crop damages sustained from freezing temperatures last winter,” the NASS report says.

New estimates from the California Avocado Commission indicate that the 2007-2008 crop will likely be 10 percent smaller than initially projected. Before the fires, crop size was projected by the CAC to be up 33 percent from last season, but now production growth is likely to be reduced to about 20 percent, the report says.

“If realized, this should provide around 162,000 tons in 2007-2008, up from the 135,000 tons reported by NASS in 2006-2007 — slightly below average,” the report says.